The numbers
In a thrilling matchup during the 2026 NCAA March Madness tournament, High Point defeated Wisconsin 83-82, marking yet another significant upset in the tournament’s storied history. This victory is emblematic of the notorious 12-5 matchup, where lower-seeded teams often defy expectations and emerge victorious.
Since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985, there have been 58 upsets by No. 12 seeds, showcasing the unpredictability and excitement that March Madness brings each year. Historically, the lower seed has a win percentage of 35.37% against higher seeds in these 12 vs. 5 matchups, making it a popular pick among fans and analysts alike.
In fact, in 34 of the last 40 tournaments, the 12 seed has managed to win at least one first-round game, further solidifying the reputation of these matchups as potential sources of surprises. Utah State holds the record for being the No. 12 seed five times, with a 1-4 record against No. 5 seeds, illustrating the challenges these teams face despite their occasional triumphs.
Adding to the drama of this year’s tournament, the Sweet 16 game between UCLA and Minnesota is set for March 27, 2026, at 7:30 p.m. ET. This matchup follows UCLA’s earlier victory over Minnesota on January 15, 2026, where they won 69-67. The anticipation surrounding this game is palpable, as fans eagerly await to see if UCLA can continue their winning streak.
Moreover, the trend of upsets is not limited to the 12-5 matchups. Since 1985, 33 No. 13 seeds have upset No. 4 seeds, indicating that the unpredictability of March Madness extends beyond just the 12-5 games. This year, the excitement is heightened as teams battle for a chance to advance further in the tournament.
The 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament officially tips off on March 17 and runs through April 6, promising to deliver thrilling moments and unforgettable games. As teams compete for the coveted championship, fans are reminded of the rich history of upsets that make March Madness a unique and exhilarating experience.
As the tournament progresses, observers will be keen to see if High Point’s victory over Wisconsin is a harbinger of more surprises to come. With the Sweet 16 on the horizon, the stakes are higher than ever, and the potential for further upsets remains a tantalizing possibility. Details remain unconfirmed.
