The war in the Middle East is impacting the cost of some mortgages in Canada. In recent weeks, three- and five-year fixed mortgage rates have increased by 0.5 percent, raising concerns among homeowners and potential buyers. As of April 2, 2026, the average rate for a five-year fixed mortgage stands at 4.95 percent, while the average variable rate is at 4.2 percent.
Approximately 1.4 million mortgages are set to be renewed by the end of the year, which represents about 23 percent of all mortgages in Canada. This significant turnover is expected to affect many homeowners, especially those who secured rates as low as 1.5% to 2% during the pandemic era.
Marshall Tully, a mortgage expert, commented, “Unfortunately, it’s possible that trend could continue,” referring to the rising rates. The current Bank of Canada’s key interest rate is at 2.25 percent, and fixed mortgage rates are anticipated to keep climbing throughout April 2026.
Benjamin Tal, another financial analyst, pointed out the broader implications of these changes, stating, “If you are upset that the five-year fixed mortgage rate you were hoping to get just went up, you can blame Trump for that.” This highlights how international events can ripple through local economies.
As homeowners prepare for renewals, Moshe Lander emphasizes the importance of early engagement with banks, saying, “The biggest misconception is that banks are out to get you, but if you approach them early enough in the process, they will work with you to make sure you don’t have to fire-sell your home.” This advice is crucial as many face the prospect of higher payments.
Moreover, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has created volatility across global financial markets and driven energy prices higher, further complicating the economic landscape. Approximately 60% of all outstanding mortgages in Canada will renew in 2025 or 2026, which could lead to a significant shift in the housing market.
Details remain unconfirmed regarding the exact impact of these geopolitical tensions on future mortgage rates. Observers are closely monitoring the situation, as the long-term effects of the war on the Canadian economy and mortgage rates remain uncertain.
