AccuWeather predicts that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will see between 11 to 16 named storms, with expectations of 4 to 7 hurricanes and 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater). This forecast comes as the region prepares for potential impacts on the U.S., with 3 to 5 direct impacts anticipated.
Historically, the 30-year average for named storms in the Atlantic is 14, making this year’s predictions slightly below that mark. However, there is a 40 percent chance that more than 14 named storms could occur, and a 15 percent chance of exceeding 16 storms. In comparison, the 2025 hurricane season produced only 13 named storms and notably did not experience a hurricane landfall in the U.S. mainland for the first time in a decade.
The 1992 hurricane season serves as a reminder of the unpredictability of these events, having recorded only 7 named storms but including the devastating Hurricane Andrew. This highlights the importance of preparedness, regardless of forecasts.
Warm ocean water is a significant concern this season, as it can lead to the rapid intensification of storms. Alex DaSilva emphasizes the need for preparedness, stating, “It’s very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of the forecast.”
While El Niño is expected to suppress storm activity, it does not eliminate the risk of hurricanes making landfall. Craig Fugate notes, “Seasonal forecasts are about how busy the ocean might be. Disasters are about where one storm goes.” This underscores the unpredictability of individual storm paths.
Additionally, the alarming trend of rising sea surface temperatures, as indicated by the expanse of orange and yellow on temperature maps, adds to concerns for the upcoming season. DaSilva warns, “The expanse of orange and yellows on sea surface temperature maps is a very concerning trend as we get ready to head into hurricane season.”
Despite expectations of a slightly below-average hurricane season, DaSilva cautions that major impacts can still occur, stating, “Even if it’s expected to be a slightly below average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States.”
As the season approaches, the exact impact of El Niño on the 2026 hurricane season remains unclear. Details remain unconfirmed, but residents along the coast are urged to stay vigilant and prepared for any potential storms.
